Looking beyond subscriptions to unlock repeat purchase growth on Amazon

For replenishable categories, loyalty is often measured through subscription behavior. It is easy to see why: a subscription signals repeat demand, lowers friction for consumers, and gives brands a more predictable path to future sales. But loyalty does not always show up in one program.

Some consumers come back through one-time reorders. Others return for a different flavor, size, or format. And when brands rely too heavily on a single KPI, they risk misreading how consumers are actually behaving.

That was the opportunity Flywheel identified for one CPG brand on Amazon: expand the view of repeat purchase behavior beyond Subscribe & Save and uncover whether consumers were still returning, even if they were not subscribing.

The challenge: understanding whether loyalty was truly weakening

The client came to Flywheel concerned about their 2026 subscription trends. Subscribe & Save units were down, and the team wanted to understand whether the decline pointed to a larger retention issue.

At first glance, the data raised a reasonable concern: were consumers dropping out of the repeat purchase cycle, or was the brand facing a “leaky bucket” problem?

The Flywheel team approached the question differently. Instead of evaluating loyalty through Subscribe & Save alone, we looked at the broader reorder picture to determine whether repeat demand was declining or simply shifting into a different purchase behavior.

The approach: expand the KPI set beyond Subscribe & Save

The Flywheel team combined Vendor Central’s new Subscribe & Save dashboard module with AMC insights to compare subscription behavior against total reorder activity. We also used the Point of Market Entry report from our Consumer Long-Term Value Dashboard to understand how consumers were returning across products.

That broader view added important context. If a consumer does not subscribe, they may still reorder through a one-time purchase. They may come back for a different flavor, size, or format. They may prefer control over convenience. Without looking at total reorders, brands can miss those signals.

The analysis was built around three questions:

1. Are Subscribe & Save units declining while total reorder units are increasing?

2. Are consumers coming back through one-time reorder behavior instead of subscription?

3. Which products are driving higher long-term value through reorder behavior?

The insight: reorders were growing, even as Subscribe & Save declined

Using unit data from reorder performance in Vendor Central, the Flywheel team compared total reorder units against Subscribe & Save reorder units.

The analysis showed that while Subscribe & Save units were down 5% year over year, total reorder units were up 9%. Net unit growth was positive, with approximately 90,000 additional units year over year.

The share of total units view told a similar story. In Q1 2025, Subscribe & Save and reorder each represented 39% share of total units. By Q1 2026, Subscribe & Save share had declined to 33%, while reorder share increased to 43%.

In other words, the brand was not losing repeat demand. Repeat demand was shifting.

Consumers were still coming back, but more of them were doing so through one-time reorder behavior rather than Subscribe & Save. That changed the strategic read. A Subscribe & Save decline alone suggested a retention problem. The broader reorder analysis suggested a behavior shift.

Why this matters: loyalty does not always look like a subscription

Subscribe & Save is a valuable retention mechanism, but it is not the only expression of loyalty.

Some consumers may prefer to reorder manually because they want more control over timing. Others may want to rotate flavors, try a different product, or avoid building up too much inventory at home. External consumer sentiment also suggested that some shoppers had concerns about Subscribe & Save, reinforcing the need to look beyond program participation alone.

For this client, that mattered because the category included products where variety and replenishment behavior could overlap. A consumer might enter through one item, return for the same item, or come back for a different flavor or format.

By using Point of Market Entry reporting from Flywheel’s Consumer Long-Term Value Dashboard, the team could see not only whether consumers returned, but how they returned across the portfolio.

The deeper insight: reorder consumers were driving stronger value

The broader analysis showed that reorder behavior was not only increasing. It was also tied to meaningful consumer value.

In Q1, reorder consumers generated stronger value than Subscribe & Save consumers across the analyzed products. On average, reorder shoppers delivered $84 in value per user, compared with $56 for Subscribe & Save shoppers. Reorder shoppers also produced higher long-term value, at 2.9 versus 2.0 for Subscribe & Save.

The next layer: some consumers returned for different products

The team also found that reorder behavior was not limited to buying the same item again. Across the products reviewed, roughly a third of return sales came from consumers purchasing a different item. In the total view, 64% of return sales came from the same item, while 36% came from a different item.

That finding helped explain why Subscribe & Save alone did not capture the full loyalty story. A consumer may not subscribe because they do not want the exact same product delivered on a set schedule, but that same consumer may still be highly valuable if they come back to buy another flavor, size, or adjacent product.

For brands, that creates a different kind of opportunity. Instead of only pushing consumers toward subscription, brands can also use reorder behavior to inform cross-sell, variety messaging, and product-specific retention strategies.

The action: test reorder VPCs alongside Subscribe & Save

The analysis gave the client a more balanced way to evaluate repeat behavior and plan future investment.

Rather than focusing only on Subscribe & Save VPCs, the Flywheel team identified an opportunity to test reorder VPCs (Vendor-Powered Coupons) in Q3. The team also ensured through Annual Vendor Negotiations that VFCMs (Vendor-Funded Managed Coupons) could support either Subscribe & Save VPCs or reorder VPCs, giving the brand more flexibility in how it invests against repeat demand.

That flexibility matters. If consumers are showing strong reorder behavior outside of Subscribe & Save, brands need tools that can support those behaviors. A reorder VPC can help activate repeat purchase without forcing every consumer into a subscription model.

The result is a more consumer-led approach: use Subscribe & Save where it fits the behavior, but use reorder tactics where consumers are already showing a preference for one-time return purchases.

The takeaway: measure the behavior, not just the program

Subscribe & Save remains an important signal, especially in replenishable categories. But it should not be the only metric brands use to evaluate loyalty.

For this client, a narrow read on Subscribe & Save suggested a decline. A fuller read on total reorders showed that consumers were still coming back, just through a different path.

That shift opened the door to better measurement, smarter investment, and a more flexible activation strategy.

For brands, the lesson is clear: when Subscribe & Save declines, do not stop at the program metric. Look at total reorder behavior, product journeys, value per user, and long-term value to understand whether loyalty is truly weakening or simply showing up differently.

The brands that take that broader view can make better decisions about where to invest, how to re-engage consumers, and how to grow repeat demand over time.